Temporal trends in AIDS-related survival

Although research indicates that AIDS-related survival has improved over calendar time, studies of temporal AIDS-related survival patterns are often confounded by the stage of AIDS diagnosis. The objective of the present study was therefore to assess temporal trends in AIDS-related survival from clinical indicators other than point of AIDS diagnosis. The study sample consisted of 2126 adult HIV-positive patients who were treated between 1987 and 1996 at a large southwestern academic medical center. Proportional hazards analyses indicate that survival from each of the following clinical baselines improved in a linear fashion over calendar period: first CD4 count, first CD4 count of 200 or greater, first CD4 count less than 200, and diagnosis of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, cytomegalovirus, and Mycobacterium avium complex. These findings indicate that previously estimated survival trajectories have persisted through the mid-1990s, even when defining survival from clinical indicators other than AIDS diagnosis.