Development and internal validation of the male osteoporosis risk estimation score

PURPOSE: We wanted to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule to identify men at risk for osteoporosis and subsequent hip fracture who might benefit from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). METHODS: We used risk factor data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III to develop a best fitting multivariable logistic regression model in men aged 50 years and older randomized to either the development (n = 1,497) or validation (n = 1,498) cohorts. The best fitting model was transformed into a simplified scoring algorithm, the Male Osteoporosis Risk Estimation Score (MORES). We validated the MORES, comparing sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve in the 2 cohorts and assessed clinical utility with an analysis of the number needed-to-screen (NNS) to prevent 1 additional hip fracture. RESULTS: The MORES included 3 variables - age, weight, and history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease - and showed excellent predictive validity in the validation cohort. A score of 6 or greater yielded an overall sensitivity of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.85-0.97), a specificity of 0.59 (95% CI, 0.56-0.62), and an area under the ROC curve of 0.832 (95% CI, 0.807-0.858). The overall NNS to prevent 1 additional hip fracture was 279 in a cohort of men representative of the US population. CONCLUSIONS: Osteoporosis is a major predictor of hip fractures. Experts believe bisphosphonate treatment in men should yield results similar to that in women and reduce hip fracture rates associated with osteoporosis. In men aged 60 years and older, the MORES is a simple approach to identify men at risk for osteoporosis and refer them for confirmatory DXA scans.